TRUMP’S SOURCE DATA

Dr. Deborah Brix has relied on a University of Washington model for the projections of the Covid-19 virus. The projections for May and June had very little indication of a second wave and this information floated within the White House, which explains the President’s attitude in re-opening. That was then, but now things have changed. 

With the re-openings prior to being fully compliant to the CDC guidelines, created a very different scenario and UW has changed its tune. According to the New York Times article from July, 18^th 2020, the White House turned to Dr. Brix, using her opinion as “she was a highly regarded infectious disease expert and was a constant source of upbeat news for the President and his aides There were warnings that the model she studied may not be accurate, especially in predicting the course of the virus against a backdrop of evolving political, economic, and social factors.” The model she studied painted a very rosy picture initially for the virus than other public health projections. 

These projections were also given to the states to ponder when making the decisions to open. This information was disseminated by aides in the White House without any public health background and painting an erroneous picture of the pandemic. 

The same University of Washington group that brought the premature rosy picture have regrouped and have written a paper that makes projections based on months of additional data. The statistics laden paper has not yet been peer reviewed, however it does paint somewhat more ominous outcomes as I have shown below. It shows the potential for 3 scenarios depending on compliance to guidance.

University of Washington current projections of deaths by December 31, 2020:

The first projection was predicated on a scenario where 95% of the public mandatory compliant wearing a mask in public, and mandatory social distancing, and this scenario produces 175,160 to 223,377 deaths by year end.  This is the best case scenario.

The second scenario would be to stay the course we currently set, with masks being optional and somewhat maintaining social distancing mandates (when convenient). Under these protocols, projected death by year-end is estimated to be between 233,885 to 398,397 according to the study.

The third scenario studied removes any social distancing mandates. The estimated deaths by year-end is 288,046 to 649,582. This is called the mandate-easing scenario and calculates the deaths based on the current rates, if easing these mandates.  Pretty scary huh?

I have a feeling that Dr. Brix had read the paper and informed the President prior to his first Covid-19 briefing in months on the 21^st  of July. Trump stayed on script and admitted it was going to get worse before it will get better. These numbers are insane!  These are projections from the same people that initially gave that rosy model.  Ok, am I afraid? Hell yes!

A thousand dead per day on the 21^st from the virus with 163 days to year end that’s another 163,000 at this rate and would be 300,000 deaths by year end. This is in the middle of the second scenario model above and appears to be a realistic outcome. These projections take into a realistic account that there will not be a vaccine that is distributed to the general public by year-end.

If anyone thinks the U.S. has done a good job containing the virus only need look at how other countries are faring with the virus. As of the July 21^st, the numbers of reported cases by country are as follows: Germany 642, U.K. 580, Japan 454, France, 350, Australia 267, Italy 190, Portugal 135, So. Korea 26 and the United States 62,879.  Did we do a good job? You decide.