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TRUMP’s – IRAN POWER PLAY  

Trump in an attempt to pound his chest and show his powers in international affairs has petitioned the U.N. to re-instate the Iranian sanctions Obama had lifted when he and the coalition of European countries reached the nuclear agreement. Trump pulled out of the agreement saying it did not go far enough to combat an unrelated issue of Iranian aggression using proxies. Trump has attempted to force Iran to the bargaining table to by instating his own sanctions. 

The European partners in the agreement have scoffed and gone around Trump’s new sanctions because Iran had complied with the agreement. Trump set up a situation whereas Iran could not use the normal bank clearing house arrangements, which are used in international transactions. The European signatories set up their own clearinghouse going around the bank. Trump’s actions would install sanctions that go back to the era prior to the agreement. To date, China, Russia, and the EU have all ignored the sanctions arbitrarily put on Iran by Trump and were able to go around Trump’s actions.

Last week a curious article was published in the Los Angeles Times.  It said that Iran, a Shiite Muslim country, was paying bounties to the Taliban, a Sunni Muslim organization, to kill American coalition  soldiers in Afghanistan.  The article was questionable.  Any Iranian fighters in Afghanistan would be in opposition to the Taliban.  It’s just like the ISIS fighter were all Sunni fighters and the Iranian backed Shiite fighters were mortal enemies. The same goes with the Taliban enemies of Iran. Could this be another situation where the enemy of my enemy is my friend? I would normally question that observation knowing the animosity between the two sects.

Intelligent networks claim the Haqqani network was paying the Taliban and had them responsible for killing at least 6 Americans.  The intelligence report does not name the specific country and uses the term “probably” in its assessment. The assessment went on to say that the Taliban needed no incentives to kill coalition forces.  I am curious about the language?  The Haqqani network is nothing more than an offshoot of the Taliban, with a common goal. The U.S. supported the network when the Soviets were in Afghanistan. This is why I question the article, however, it is possible that there were bounties paid to the network, then the Haqqani network paying the Taliban and therefore the network made the payments for the hits. The source of the funds could have originated with Iran for that purpose. The speculation is that the bounties were made after the assassination of General Soleimani.  But to blame the Haqqani network is like blaming the Taliban, not Iran that may have made the payments.  I am curious of the source of the intelligence.  Did a Taliban fighter captured tell the story?  Could this be Russian propaganda supplied by the Soviets that are supporting the Taliban to generate a “look over here” scenario to cover for their bounties on Collation forces?

Is Trump attempting to influence the United Nations by using a planted story as an argument for his renewed sanctions? Is this an effort to show he is tough when bounties are being offered to kill our soldiers?  Will this be a wag the dog moment taking Iran by the tail and attempting to wag the dog with its tail?  Is this a prelude to Trump provoking Iran and using any ruse he can contrive to create animosity to justify his use of military action?  His desperation shows with every passing day.

Iran has stated openly their preference that Trump not be elected to a second term.  That does not mean they are using active measures to insure his demise.  Russia, on the other hand is using active measures with disinformation, propaganda and divisive tactics to interfere in the 2020 elections to favor Donald Trump. It is the same playbook they used in 2016 with improvements.

For some irrational reason Trump had pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement.  Was it due to Obama having accomplished the agreement and anything Obama must be crushed as a result of Trump being humiliated by Obama in public at the Press Corp dinner years ago?

On Thursday the 20^th Michael Pompeo will go before the United Nations to plead the case for the “snapping back” of sanctions against Iran. Brutal sanctions were originally levied to pressure Iran to the bargaining table. This provision in the original Iran Nuclear agreement allows for the rapid re-institution of the sanctions as punishment for violation of the agreement.  

This action by Pompeo also follows a rebuke of the extension on the arms embargo against Tehran, in an embarrassing move by the UN. The U.S. only garnered 1 other vote with 11 abstentions, China and Russia vetoing the measure in the Security Council.

The effort by Michael Pompeo looks like a lost cause. The signatories to the pact are satisfied that Tehran is abiding by the intent of the agreement, and argue since the United States formally withdrew from the agreement and the US has no standing in the matter. 

The Russians have called the move a politically motivated campaign against Iran and should have “universal condemnation.”  John Bolton former national security advisor said, “the U.S. lost its snapback standing when it withdrew from the deal and moving ahead is not worth the damage it could do to the U.S. veto power in the council.”

Barring the fact the Security Council will reject the Pompeo demands, one option Bolton suggested destined for failure would be to interduce the sanctions as a stand-alone resolution to extending the sanctions. This could also be another embarrassment for the administration’s efforts to vilify the Iranian regime as a favor to Saudi Arabia.

Will Trump do something in desperation to vilify and embarrass the Iranian regime prior to the election? Is this an attempt to punish Iran for their stated favoritism of Biden over Trump? Nonetheless his gambit looks like another failure. He has already committed to a better and stronger nuclear deal with Iran and said,  “When I win the election, within the first month, Iran will come to us.”  Why should they?

Do you think Trump will use the Iran bounty story as justification for some type military action or other punishment against Iran based on a questionable story?  If so, why not Russia?  Is it because of the election?  Since the country was not identified and blacked out in the intelligence assessment, was the story about Russia and not Iran and planted for confusion?