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TRUMP – COVID-19 RELATED

Trump has replaced Dr. Fauci with a Dr. Scott Atlas that is dictating policy and believes in heard immunity.  The response to the idea is nothing less than a murder sentence for potentially millions of people without a vaccine.  Do the math.  218,000 deaths and 8 million people infected currently in the United States.

NYTimes article  Published Sept. 2, 2020Updated Sept. 9, 2020 WASHINGTON — “Dr. Scott W. Atlas has argued that the science of mask wearing is uncertain, that children cannot pass on the coronavirus and that the role of the government is not to stamp out the virus but to protect its most vulnerable citizens as Covid-19 takes its course.

Ideas like these, both ideologically freighted and scientifically disputed, have propelled the radiologist and senior fellow at Stanford University’s conservative Hoover Institution into President Trump’s White House, where he is pushing to reshape the administration’s response to the pandemic.

Mr. Trump has embraced Dr. Atlas, as has Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, even as he upsets the balance of power within the White House coronavirus task force with ideas that top government doctors and scientists like Anthony S. Fauci, Deborah L. Birx and Jerome Adams, the surgeon general, find misguided — even dangerous — according to people familiar with the task force’s deliberations.  That might be the point.

“I think Trump clearly does not like the advice he was receiving from the people who are the experts — Fauci, Birx, etc. — so he has slowly shifted from their advice to somebody who tells him what he wants to hear,” said Dr. Carlos del Rio, an infectious disease expert at Emory University who is close to Dr. Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator.” End

Herd immunity is achieved at a level of 60-70% of the population.  Dr. Atlas is of the opinion that only 25% is necessary contrary to epidemiologists predictions.  The math to project deaths is for herd immunity is simple. To project total herd immunity deaths the number predicted to be using low of about 60% of 330 million generates approximately 200 million people required to obtain herd immunity.  With that comes  a death rate of  218,000 divided by 8 million or a rate of 2.75% .  Multiply .0275 x 200 million you get total projected deaths all other things being equal (as my economics professors always said when presenting a problem).  That’s 5.5 million deaths, that’s one death in every 60 people in the United States or 1.7% of the population.  This would impact seniors, essential workers and emergency and the medical personnel hardest.  These tend to have the highest mortality rates and involves individuals have a large minority population. 

With advisors to Donald trump whispering into his ear the potential for herd immunity, Trump feels what-ever will get everyone back to work quickly he embraces even though it potentially kills millions.

It’s only been 7 months with potentially another year before things look similar to normal. There is pandemic fatigue and now only when Covid-19  hits home will some families  will pay attention and change ways. 

We are now entering into another wave of the virus.  Cases have spiked to 65,000/day approaching the high a few months ago.  The death rate corresponds to the rise in cases and is now approaching 1.000/day again.  The surge is in the Midwest as weather cools down and indoor activities take over.  All states are not showing any dramatic downturn in cases and 39 have had increases. 

The NYTimes article reported on the Upper Midwest warning: “What’s happening in the Upper Midwest is just a harbinger of things to come in the rest of the country, said Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota.” With the effective rate of 50%-60% we consider that a victory says  Dr. Osterholm.  Going on he commented people are skeptical of this vaccine, however he says the FDA should not issue go ahead until it is ready and is confident the FDA and CDC will make sure it is safe. 

 If only 50% will take the vaccine when ready, which studies indicate, then only about 25% of the population will have the protection added to the 10-12% that has already been infected you only come up with potentially 37% with some degree of protection.  What about the other 25% or so that to gain herd immunity? 

Do the math 25% of 330 million is 82.5 million.  With a mortality rate of 2.75% would approximate the mortality for the pandemic which could could approach 2.3 million souls dead.

Dr. Fauci wants the infection rate to be no more than 10,000/day to be the value before we can take any foot off the gas on mediation using masks, social distancing, and avoiding large crowds, and washing hands.  We are now at 6.5 times that rate. 

A new study not yet peer reviewed having about 2,800  individuals all which have taken the drug remdesivir in a treatment regimen of 10 days.  The study found no benefit in either immunity, less time in hospitals and no less death rate, in other words in this study it is only acts like a  placebo.  This will make the third failure of a potential therapeutic not to mention Trump’s miracle cure of bleach.

Taking Dr. Atlas herd immunity stated notion that 25% is all that is necessary then do the math.  Take the 12% with immunity due to having the virus then the 13% x 330 million x 2,75% you get total deaths potential with the stupidity of this individual is now 1.2 million individuals without a vaccine.  That is murder when you compare the results of other countries responses to the pandemic. 

Moscow Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) refuses to put a Covid-19 relief bill on the Senate floor that has been negotiated between the democrats and the White House.  It appears less likely a relief bill will be passed before elections.   Mitch knows the bill will pass, however it will not get a majority of Republicans and therefore he will not be putting on the floor for a vote.  That’s Mitch’s idea of the democratic process-not majority rules but only the majority of the majority will rule.  Thanks Mitch – hope you lose.