MANUFACTURING AND UNEMPLOYMENT

The current pandemic will have a lasting effect on all manufacturing and will be exacerbated by the lack of testing.  Without testing, no venue that cannot insure social distancing will be reopened.  This includes most factories, all sporting events, and many of the services this service economy employs.  Most developed countries with a manufacturing base, has a service sector of about 25% of the employed.  The United States has shed manufacturing to offshore countries and as a result of our dependence on services is 40%.  This sector outstrips most of the manufacturing sectors in total employment. The 15% differential I predict will be shown to be unnecessary in the near future, and will be the slowest sector to recover. 

Two types of tests, a vaccine, or other type of mitigation of the effects of the pandemic, are required to even begin to revive our economy.  The types of tests that are required are as follows: the first is one that determines if an individual has an active virus the second test would determine if antibodies are present to determine the spread.  Barring any progress on mitigation and/or a vaccine, these tests are the only viable way to begin to return to normal.  The progress in testing has been devastating to the economy. 

The President wants the country open again.  If that was true he should have put all of the countries assets to at least try to mitigate this economic disaster.  His current coronavirus relief bill is as much as 7 trillion dollars.  It only took 28 billion (in current dollars about 280 billion) for the Apollo program to put all the astronauts on the moon.  I would say that those missions were extremely complex in nature and required massive coordination to complete.  Not unlike the Manhattan Project for the development of the Atom bomb

Korea, a country that discovered their 1^st case of the virus at the same time as the United States, immediately instituted social distancing and mandatory testing, contact notifications, and monitor of individuals to insure compliance.  This served to have Korea get the virus under control and has bent the curve.  Whereas, the United States is still on a steep climb in infections. Korea is also starting its recovery with people being able to go back to work.  The difference is testing.  If the United States had put together a team like the Manhattan project to develop and distribute tests, perhaps a different result?  A few billion dollars spent on testing at the beginning would have saved trillions being dolled out currently.  It’s not too late. Spend what it takes to provide universal testing that can provide immediate results.  These billions could save trillions in the future especially since no one has immunities to this insidious virus.  With no individuals having any immunities and without testing no part of the economy recover any time soon.  We are now number one in individuals having contracted the virus and number one in Coronavirus deaths.

As with other administration responses, the development of the tests became one of stupid pride and rife with politicization of the virus response.  The CDC decided early on they did not want to use the same tests as other countries such as Koreas.  Instead they decided to develop their own test.  The test developed by the CDC was found to be unreliable in test results.  This created a lag time in catching up with testing.  They then approved a test that took 24 hours for the response.  Korea’s test took 45 minutes.  Testing is still a problem.  There is a test that determines antibodies that take 5 minutes.  This solves half the equation for return to a normal economy.  A test that gives near immediate results for those that are actively carrying the virus is now necessary.  All efforts should be brought to bear in order to provide the necessary development and wide spread distribution of both the types of tests.

Barring the universal testing with near immediate results, the next best salve for the economy is a vaccine.  The development and testing to insure there are no devastating effects of the vaccine could take 12 to 18 months.  After the development comes the manufacture and distribution.  Like other corona type viruses the antibodies wear off after a year, therefore annual vaccinations like flu shots would be either combined with the annual shot, or separately given.  With these facts the urgency of testing becomes ever more prescient. 

Mitigation of the effects can be useful in the pandemic; however, quacks abound like in the old west like carnival barkers and snake oil stable genius reality show hosts that promote only hope and disinformation. Our stable genius only provides self-aggrandizement with arrogance, disinformation vailed in bombastic rhetoric exposed using arrogance to cover his stupidity.  He touts unproven and potentially deadly for some, a potential mitigation to sew unfounded hope without the necessary science.  Science what’s that?

As can be seen there will be a long term devastating effect to the economy.  This impact can only currently, be mitigated by testing. Take for example my attempt to purchase my favorite chocolate for my wife’s birthday.  See’s Candies appears to have been a casualty due to the virus.  When will the company its employees and retail outlets reopen?  Think about all this type of operations in our economy.  Malls closed, retail outlets, small non-essential shops, small and large manufactures that cannot maintain social distance will remain closed or minimally be open until tests are universally available.  This is a crisis and the only entity that has the resources to face up to this crisis is the Federal Government.  Thus far, the government response has been that of a feckless stable genius.  Like the response to Katrina, Bush conveniently blamed the local officials for their lack of being prepared. 

By the President declaring a national disaster and signing each states’ request, by declaring disaster status for the pandemic on March 13^th, makes the responsibility of the Federal government to coordinate the entire response, by definition spelled out in the statute. This compels the stable genius to have a coordinated federal response to the crisis. The dismissal of any of this responsibility assures he will not be to blame for his inactions.  It is the Presidents lack of coordination and dismissal of his responsibilities that are spelled out in the definition of a national disaster is appalling. 

In a news conference this week, Jared the stable genius son-in-law, stated the national stockpile was for the government’s use and not the states.  The FEMA website that addresses the national stockpile, stated the stockpile was specifically to be amassed for use by the states and the government, in case of a crisis, would allocate based on need by the states.  The day after Jared’s proclamation the website was changed to reflect his statement. Duh!

How much time will pass until the genius can see beyond his daily sycophantic petulant performances as a reality show host and see beyond the lousy, daily script provided by his own genius.  I predict at peak of 25-30% unemployment, with soup lines for the next 6 to 9 months and at least 15% unemployment as a leveling off thereafter without the actions to find a cure or

universal testing.  Billions thrown at this pandemic could save trillions in the near future.  The 7 trillion will only be a down payment unless a massive concerted well led effort is implemented. Our economy requires $3 trillion a month to operate the same as it was prior to the pandemic.  Look for the $7 trillion already authorized and an additional $3 trillion per month for every month the stay at home efforts remain beyond June or July when the $7 trillion runs out.  A $3 trillion dollar effort would go a long way to ameliorate this pandemic. 

Capitalism does not fare well in a crisis.  Those corporations that have avoided paying any taxes and yet operate within the U.S. are now holding their hands out begging for taxpayer monies.  The Capitalist mantra of survival of the fittest, no longer is parroted by the elite. Their new goal is how much taxpayer monies can they grab for their shareholders and take from the taxpayer.  Please note the corporate priorities are not always in the best interest of the taxpayer.

  Take in that 35% of stock is owned by foreign interests.  Cruise ship companies are registered in other foreign countries for U.S. tax avoidance and pay no U.S. taxes.  They have the ear of the stable genius and he has stated he would help.  Trump keeps insisting we must get back to work, yet the only way this can be accomplished is a concerted effort authorized by this reality show host.  I predict he will eventually create the project and fund it with billions.  Trump will do this with fanfare and self-congratulation on its assembly.  His desire for everyone to prematurely go back to work will create a new spike in infections.

Social Capitalism should never exist.  Social Capitalism takes taxpayer monies at all levels and redistributes it to the well off.  Natural selection would have the strong and well established survive.  The assets of the corporations are suitable to provide as collateral for low interest loans for companies that pay U.S. taxes.  Corporate bailouts for foreign companies operating in the U.S. should only consist of employee bailouts.  Will foreign automobile manufacturing companies be eligible? Social capitalism makes the wage disparity between the rich and poor greater.  Some small amount of social capitalism is a necessity, however, perhaps by making a corporation be responsive to the taxpayers with loan provisions against assets, may be palatable.