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TRUMP’s PANDEMIC TOLL   

As a precautionary note, one should be aware of the potential for a devastating fall death toll within the United States, the wealthiest nation and poorest performing of any rich country in containing the virus. This assessment is a result of looking at basic history, yes Trump you can learn from history. Trump said in a recent interview that the flu of 1917 was instrumental in ending WWII.  Yes he said that. 

The death rate in the Spring was similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, so says a New York Times article by Apoorva Mandaivilli, tracking the outbreak. The Spanish Flu pandemic killed 50 million people worldwide and an estimated 675,000 in the US. The current published numbers for deaths in the US is 172,100 deaths. A more accurate number is calculated to be 200,000 at this time. This larger number is based on prior average death rates over a long period of time and those death rates projected against current death rates.

New York City had 33,500 deaths attributed to the virus between March 11^th and May 11^Th of this year, according to the city’s Department of Health and Human Hygiene.  The city has 8.3 million people and that’s a monthly incidence rate of 202 per 100,000 person months. This has been a standard method of tracking deaths over time. Here is what should awaken everyone, that rate is 4 times the corresponding time frame in 2017 through 2020. 

The death rate for the Spanish Flu research By Dr. Jeremy Faust Physician, in a historical analysis of the 1918 pandemic showed that the period between October and November of 1918 was the height of the death count for the flu.  He used detailed mortality rates and these were used to calculate the overall mortality rate. He found approximately 31,589 deaths among 5.5 million people, which he calculated to be 287.2 per 100,000 person months for the fall 1918. That was a 3 times increase in the death rate for the same period in 1917. Dr. Faust found that the death rate in NY in 2020 was about 70% of that in 1917. 

The 2020 flu season hitting the U.S. in the fall without mitigation or a vaccine by the year’s end, could have us in for a real shock. 675,000 deaths are possible in the US without a viable vaccine. We are at 200,000 estimated deaths and are 30% there. By year’s end it is predicted to be at 400,000 victims. That’s almost 60% of the great pandemic.

 The death rate could be as high as 40% greater in the Fall than in the Spring.  This would increase the death rate to about 1,400 deaths/day.  It would only take 6.5 months at the rate of 1,400/day to reach the 675,000 total. 

A New York Times article reported more deaths than usual, with surges in both the South and the West. There have been an average of 1000 deaths/day for the past 2 weeks.  There was 1,470 deaths reported on August 12^th.. These deaths are a result of sharp increases in cases in June and July, corresponding with re-openings and bars and beaches.

The increase in cases will follow school openings, companies going back to in facility vs at home work, colder weather being closed up without proper ventilation and the complications of the seasonal flu. To say nothing of football games and super spreader rallies by Donald -the virus king. The Fall will be worse than in the Spring for numbers of deaths/day. Thank you Mr. Trump.