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TRUMP’s MIDDLE EAST DEBACLE

 The Trump/Kushner/Netanyahu team of 3 card monte has just managed to piss off the ones they say they were attempting to help. Did Trump/Kushner have leverage over the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.)? How did they convince the UAE to sign an agreement to normalize relations with Israel and recognize them as a legitimate state. The large U.S. base and presence in the Emirates could have something to do with the action?

The Al Dhafra Air Base in the Emirates is the busiest U.S base in the world for surveillance flights and has 3,800 U.S. personnel (2016). The 380^th Air Expeditionary Wing houses F-22 Raptors, KC-10 A/C, RQ-4 drones, Global Hawk surveillance A/C, E-3 Sentry and U-2 Dragon Lady.

The port of Jebel Ali in the Emirates is the busiest U.S. Navy port of call and is the largest man made deep-water port in the world, capable of handling our largest aircraft carriers.

The progressive states of the UAE contain 9 million people, of which 90% are expatriates living in the UAE. Citizenship can be obtained by living in the UAE for 20 years with no convictions and speak Arabic.  The U.S. presence is used by UAE to counter the Iranian threat. 

The agreement with the UAE was not discussed with the Palestinians prior to the agreement. The agreement basically has the UAE recognize Israel, in exchange for ceasing further annexation of the West Bank, based on a map that has not yet been agreed. This is considered a betrayal of the Palestinians and a land grab of Palestinian territory, agreed to by a third party.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has already said he is not giving up on the current annexation of the region, however he is willing to suspend the activities. The new map that will be agreed to will tell if the agreement will hold. The Palestinians feel abandoned by this effort. The Arab countries were holding off any recognition of Israel for the ability of the Palestinians to have their own state. The riff is so bad that an aircraft full of 16 tons of medical supplies, that landed in Tel Aviv from the Emirates meant for the Palestinians, was rejected by the Palestinian leadership.

Some in the Arab state think this is only a land garb to legitimize the prior actions in the region and codify the existing illegal settlements on the West Bank. The recognition of Israel comes with full normalization of relationship, with exchange of diplomates and setting up of embassies.

The pullback of annexation was presented as some kind of salve for the Palestinians, instead most consider it a stab in the back. Some see it as trading an illegal land grab for normal relations with a third party. Husam Zumlot head of the Palestinian mission to the United Kingdom said, “This agreement is very damaging to the cause of peace because it takes away one of the key incentives for Israel to end its occupation-normalization with the Arab world.  It basically tells Israel it can have peace with an Arab country in return for postponing illegal theft of Palestinian land.”

The Israeli newspaper read “Historic Agreement-Peace in Exchange for Annexation.”  The Palestinian newspaper in bold red letters read “TRIPARTITE AGGRESSION AGAINST THE RIGHTS OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE.”  The objective seems to be dividing the Arab states in order to pick them off individually and then deal with the fallout from the Palestinians, after the others fall into line and eliminate any leverage that the Palestinians had.

Benjamin Netanyahu has come up with this one-sided approach, as a hail marry to entice other Arab states to join in. The only rationale that UAE has to normalize relations is to thwart Iranian aggression.  With the potential of Trump threatening to abandon the region, the thought of “The Enemy of My Enemy” comes to mind for the sole motivation for the UAE.

The UAE and current Palestinian leadership have had a decade long disagreement with former leader now in exile in the UAE. The Palestinians have put forth the notion that this agreement had more to do with the timing of our Presidential elections. Ghassan Khatib, a political scientist at Birzeit University in the West Bank said, “The Gulf countries are interested in keeping Trump in power. They were very happy with Trump’s policy on Iran and unhappy with Obama’s.  So they will do anything to contribute to the re-election of Trump.”

There is only one glimmer of hope for the deal, that is it is going to stave off any future expansion and even the Emeriti representatives expected Israel to characterize the halt in annexations to only be a “pause.”  The deal would most likely postpone any such actions by Israel until after the elections. This agreement is a good start and only has potential if Israel actually does cease and remove illegal settlements and not just pause.

This agreement helps both Trump and Netanyahu in their prospective elections.  This looks like progress in the region toward at least uniting “the enemies of their enemy.” Peace in the region is not easy. Knowing historical perspective and motivations are important. This is the result of the 3 ½ years in bringing a lasting peace to the region, with the divide and conqueror strategy coupled with threats?  Perhaps it is using this as an example for Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to follow?

Trump will use this agreement to say “Look what a great deal maker I am! I’ve brought peace to the Middle East.” Netanyahu can use this to temporarily distract from his countries pandemic woes, with high youth unemployment and street protests. The Agreement and all of the fanfare will be in Washington, D.C. at a time to coincide with something important that the Biden campaign is planning.

Anshel Pfeffer Netanyahu’s biographer claims that he has no intention of ceasing the incursion and illegal settlements in the region. In May he boldly predicted he would never fulfill any of his annexation pledges.

Trump needed some “look over here” laser show to take the attention off the same problems as Netanyahu, pandemic ragging and street protests. The diversion also was meant to blunt the announcement of Kamala Harris as VP. What it does not do is actually bring peace. This gambit only works for Israel and sets up the Palestinians with a negotiation without leverage and I predict further violence with the Palestinians, using the excuse they have no other option due to a continued Israeli land grab.

Only Trump, Kushner, his sycophants and those on Fox noise channel think by heaping on praise and suggesting that they are most deserving of nothing less than the Nobel Peace Prize for bringing everlasting peace to the Middle East. This is all a big reality TV show to them and they want that rose!