LOW HANGING FRUIT – HOW TRUMP WINS

Base + single issue voters including; racists, anti-immigration activists(aka racists), right to life, farm subsidy recipients and stock market watchers. Other types that Trump is wooing; low income working class (PPP dollars giving 1/3rd of the unemployed more dollars than when they were working). Trump can win with these voters with added strategy and October surprises.

The base is with Trump. For them it’s always and forever Trump republicans no matter what Trump does or says. Trump also owns those who binge watch Fox disinformation, republican talking points, and conspiracy theory channel. There are 25% of the Republicans would vote for a fish if it had a ( R ) by its name. These low IQ voters give “the party of stupid” its nickname. These are some of the same people that will go to a super spreader Covid-19 event just to be in the same room as Trump, no matter what the contamination levels are.  These are the Trump  base voters 25%-30% of the voting public.   

Trump’s megaphone regarding racist tropes was evident when he continues to coddle and insist on maintaining confederate symbols including base names, flag symbol, and statues lionizing confederate traders. This single issue may already be baked into the base in Trump’s case and may not increase the base tally as these individuals are hard right. This message was highlighted with his the “Death of the Suburbs” diatribe accusing Biden of going to enforce laws on the books since the 60’s. Perhaps there is 2-3% that are not a Republican or already in his base.

The immigration issue could increase Trump’s chances to add to his election tally.  There are the uneducated individuals that look at any foreigner as a threat. As I have previously written, there are reasons that foreigners and multilingual individuals rise above (average IQ is 10-15% higher for multilingual individuals) and are then seen as a threat by the less educated.  Thus this single issue could swing that category of voter. There are some that see the Trump policies of cruelty as a way to stop immigration. I can see 3-5% of the voters in this category in November.

The right to life individuals are only interested in telling women they must carry the baby. My problem is this, if you can tell someone they must have a baby, given that gives control of a women’s reproductive system to the government, what happens when another group that wants to reduce population? Can they say you must terminate the fetus? The right-to-life fanatics are both from the left and right and the center and also will garner a few that aren’t in the base already.  I would put this at a potential for another 3-4% in favor of Trump in this election that are not already in his base %.

The recipients of the farm subsidies are right leaning and are in solid Republican states.  The majority of the farm subsidies went to large agricultural conglomerates and did not inure to the small farmer and the small farmer was told go big or get out. By the AG Secretary. I call this a wash and Trump will be lucky if he maintains all of the farm belt. This payout was to keep the farm states in Trump’s corner.

Stock market watchers think the stock markets are the economy. The Dow Jones Averages is a compilation of 30 highly capitalized stocks. The S&P 500 is (wait for it) a compilation of 500 companies. This does not count the millions of small businesses that are the actual backbone of the economy. This category could surprise everyone. This could be as high as 4-5% of the electorate in November

Those with fixed incomes and robust 401K and Social Security recipients have not been hurt by the downturn only the public health impact.  Those working in the hospitality, travel, entertainment, and the food industries will be impacted for years. Trump’s PPP giving more than earned while working may work to Trump’s advantage if the economy rebounds. I am skeptical, unless there is a vaccine in distribution prior to the election. Only wishful thinking can get these to vote for Trump. Trump will be eliminated if Biden can paint him as responsible for his late actions fighting the Covid-19 virus and the added death’s it caused. 

The tally thus far for my estimate of Trump’s voter turnout giving him the popular vote would give him a total from 37-47% of the electorate in November, but wait what about strategy?

The strategy for Trump’s success appears to be one of scorched earth. Dividing the electorate into component pieces. Stifling voting by reducing polling places and voting machines, which will cause long lines and unbearable waits. Not allowing mail on-voting during the Flu + Covid-19 crisis. Slowing down the delivery of mail during the pandemic especially and on Election Day. His most used and tired and true tune is to denigrate his opponent.

The last tool to be used by Trump is the infamous October surprise. Trump’s desperation in November will cause the Barr’s gloves to come off and he will unleash his “investigation” into the sources of Obama’s role the Russia investigation.  And Biden tapes, threatening the ousted, corrupt, former leader of Ukraine to withhold aid. The previous Ukrainian leader was Pro-Russia, who lost in a fair election and is now disgruntled, will most likely cooperate with Mr. 9-11 Rudy G. One generated scandal after another, with conspiracy theories thrown in for good measure. Tying Biden to China and at the same time blaming China to the Virus.  Look for phony videos that look and sound real and Russian Bots unhinged.

 The strategy of voter suppression and October surprises could push him to 49-50% and he could win. The undecided voters that wait until the end, when accusations cannot be verified in time could win the day. The economy will eventually come back and since it has hit such a low, it will look amazing with record turn arounds, however only made possible by a record decline. The optics of the rapid yet inadequate recovery may win the day if his minions’ timing is right, with stimulus dollars thrown at the markets to boost the prices.

Will Trump leave office if he loses? He has his militias he has been grooming for years. He has the Fox disinformation channel with his sycophants spewing out hate and derision. He appears to be comfortable pitting Federal troops against peaceful protestors in Portlandia, taking them in unmarked rental vehicles and to who knows where. What will he do if he loses?

The scary part of Trump’s militias are their lack of training in control and de-escalation of peaceful protesters. They are unidentified officers looking like paramilitary taking over like storm troopers. If their mission is to protect the federal assets, then stay on federal property. Don’t go out into the peaceful crowds, shooting rubber bullets and tear gas on United States citizens. I can remember when protesters put flowers in the barrel of the weapons and the troops refused to fire on its own citizens. Has the United States turned to an autocratic banana republic where peaceful protesters are met with physical violence rather than dialogue in exercising their rights.

TRUMP’S HISTORY REMEMBERED

Will someone please tell the stable genius Trump that the Spanish Flu was in the years 1918 and continued through 1919. In the last 5 months he has repeated that the flu was in 1917 this error in history was repeated at least 15 times. Does no one in the White House know the correct dates? Are the sycophants so far up his ass they can’t correct and tell him any facts?  He repeated this false history and on some days multiple times.  While you’re at it, tell him that Columbus did not discover America, which is  another of his many bubble historical inaccuracies trying to make history conform to his mindset.

Trump’s date mix up of Spanish Flu stated to be 1917 on the following dates.

3/26, 4/1, 4/2, 4/4 (3 times), 4/5, 4/8, 4/17, 4/21, 4/22, 4/27, 5/14, 5/15, 6/17

Get it right, you would think he would have remembered when someone corrected him?