BLS OR JUST BS

The Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS, as a result of the criticism for faulty labor reports for April and May, of up to 5% error, has now said they will attempt to have more accurate data for the June report, on July 3^rd. The May official unemployment rates for all demographic groups were underestimated.

The BLS Associate Commissioner for employment and unemployment statistics, Julie Maxfield stated on 12 June, 2020: “report what the official unemployment rate did, without taking into account the miscalculation“.  The questionnaire was changed and 5 questions were added, relating to covid-based unemployment, which were used to reduce the numbers of unemployed.  Without these new questions, the economists had predicted closer to 20% unemployment in May vs the 13.3% official rate.  The questions even confused the canvassers into a mis-alignment of employed.  Maxfield also said, “we will try to be as transparent as possible for the reasons that we believe the changes occurred”  Perhaps they should concentrate on accuracy.

If the data is resolved in June and it shows an increase in employment and an increase in unemployment, it’s going to confuse some.  I, on the other hand look at it as a damming indictment of this administrations inability to tell the truth to the public and hide facts that spurns speculation instead of fixing the problem.  Is this incompetence in reporting or intentionally misleading the public?

There is a check on the data that’s not as subject to manipulation and that is the monthly survey derived separately of businesses and government agencies.  Only recently these two surveys have given opposing results, which have had economists concerned about the voracity of the BLS unemployment data.

The normal BLS database is 60,000 households surveyed.  The May survey only had canvasses 41,000.  The June sample size is predicted to shrink due to a normal time frame of 16 days for collection. It is 10 days in June, due to holidays.  The smaller the sample, the less reliable the data, since the data is subject to a multiple of around 3,200.  Or each of the 41,000 households represents almost 3,200 households using a population of 330 million and a family size of 2.5.

The April, May, and June numbers should contain an asterisk and everyone should question the official unemployment rate.  No one will ever know the real impact of unemployment during the highest months of unemployment and most intense period of job loss.  Thank you Donald Trump for the obfuscation, confusion, and one additional impact of your late response to the virus.

L’état c’est Moi

The Republican 2020 platform is going to be a re-use of the 2016 publication. Very few voters even know the document exists, let alone have read it.   The platform once was the governing guide for the party.  In 2016 it was a 58-page document dealing with a myriad of subjects important to groups and voting blocks.  The platform is usually used to include proposed legislation of interest to and goals of the groups.  The young dotard in training, Jared Kushner, wanted to condense the document into a 1-page mission statement and cooler heads prevailed. 

The process once was used to entice these groups and blocks to at least give lip service to their needs and gave them some reassurances that the party was in line with their requirements. Donald Trump had learned another term -Quid Pro Quo- during his impeachment and is determined to use it with the groups that supported him in 2016.  After all they elected him so why change?

The reuse of the prior platform makes it impossible to update the document for the response to the effects of the covid virus, the current demonstrations involving police violence, the deep recession, planning for what would happen if the magic of the vaccine isn’t available, and systemic unemployment.  It’s like the party is acting like POTUS is lying about the numbers and burying their heads in the sand on these issues.

Republican candidates are going to have a hard time explaining why certain things proven wrong remain.  One of the oddities is the language supporting gay conversion therapy. That remains in the platform. One other embarrassments of the party was the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage after spending 320 million dollars of taxpayer money to argue for marriage only being a union between a man and a women losing in the Supreme Court, which denied the proposition.

This platform re-use by a major party is the first time in the modern era.  The party has resigned itself to the fact that Donald J. Trump is the platform.  In 1912 the democrats had a tough time with what Wilson stood for, so when a N.J politician was asked he said “A platform was hardly necessary, for the candidate is a platform in himself.  If anyone asks you what a democratic platform is, just tell him, ‘Wilson’”  

Items that should have been addressed are Medicare For All, considering the current system tying insurance to employment is broken.  The Republican Party is all about choice, why not a choice of Medicare or private for profit insurance making a profit on your health.  Restoring the public trust in law enforcement with acknowledgement and solutions for the systemic problems in the police force and the current way it operates. 

The 2020 Republican Party has given up on any prior beliefs and have tied their fortunes.  Making Trump L’état c’est Moi. I am the state!