THE VOTING PUBLIC

In my old age I have never understood why the low information voter is more than willing to vote against their own best interest.  I call these sheep voters similar to the clerics calling their following a flock. A candidate that uses a perceived enemy can also garner support from the ill-informed.  These sheep also includes single issue voters.  

The next category of voter is the voter convinced that one candidate flawed, is being investigated, or some type of a criminality.  It makes little difference that the flaw is true or false.  This affect can be amplified by repeating the flaw, therefore gas-lighting the candidate.  I separate these voters from the ill-informed.  I figure this category of voter is just stupid and is easily convinced of conspiracy theories and only follow talk radio, dubious news programs that bring you news in name only, programming that will mix news with opinion, and social media. 

The largest category, are voters that will vote party over issues. These voters are loyalists and the base of the party in search of power at any cost. This portion of the electorate is willing to provide the dirty tricks for candidates and are willing to go up against the limits of acceptable behavior.  I look at these voters as political jihadists.  I figure this category of voter as about 25-30% of the voting population. 

Voters can be split with the demonization of a candidate or their views.  This includes tagging a candidate with a derogative nickname.  Political propaganda might associate the candidate with an organization, which has a negative connotation such as being a Nazi or a Socialist.  Negative past behavior is also a tool of the political activist.  Another tool is making a big deal by using a relatives questionable, but legal, behavior as some type of disqualification. Relatives should not be fair game for public scrutiny.  If a relative has committed a crime let the FBI or CIA investigate not some quack talking to individuals with a grudge.  If there is factual evidence bring it forward to the FBI, or CIA. 

Spreading falsehoods and conspiracy theories always work for a portion of the population.  Combine all the above tools and the ability to lie with impunity and a doting following, that worships every word as gospel you get 50% of the voting population.

Some examples of gaslighting are evident in the State of the Union speech given February 4, 2020.   Under trump the economy only grew 2.3% in 2019. Trump is presiding over a weak economy and rich are getting richer. Trump claimed in his state of the union he has presided over the greatest economy ever – I call this clear bullshit.  This Bullshit repeated is political propaganda and downright lying. There are at least 4 presidents have presided over better economies. This is how he rates according to the Bureau of Economic Statistics.  GDP growth is one measure of economic well-being.

Economic growth comparison for 5 Presidents are as follows: (Annualized % growth below)

Trump 2.8%

Clinton 3.8%

Carter 3.2%

Johnson 5.3%

Kennedy 5.7%

The president would have you believe that Obama left him with a sagging economy and high unemployment.  I also call out this as Bullshit.  Obama inherited a Republican mess with high levels of unemployment.  Obama decreased the levels of unemployment by 2.0% and Trump only decreased unemployment by 1.2% using the same method of calculation.  Trump’s average numbers of jobs added to the economy was 195,000 over the last 35 months.  Obama’s last 35 months job growth averaged 227,000 jobs.  It takes approximately 220,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth.  This is why Trump’s job growth is only 1.2 % vs 2.0%  for Obama.  These are BLS statistics that can be verified vs Trump’s rhetorical lies.

Now let’s look at the real wage comparison between Trump and Obama. Adjusted for inflation, Trump’s wage growth for the last 35 months was 2.5% the last 35 months of Obama’s administration was 2.4% statically, even according to the Bureau of Economic Statistics. 

Trump touted his supremacy in each of the above economic categories in his State of the Union speech.  GDP growth and lower unemployment are not consistent with his claims. The lies abounded in his speech.  Trump touted the United States to be energy independent due to his policies.  The fact is we have been energy independent for a decade.

These lies are believed by the low-information voter, to the detriment to all Americans.  As an example, individual decisions can be dependent on a confidence in the economy.  When their confidence is high, people borrow to make purchases.  When everyone realizes the truth and the economy dumps, individuals will have the feeling of despair when thy find out they have overextended themselves.  Currently 40% of the population does not have $400 in savings.  Individuals are taking two jobs to make ends meet. 

Donald Trump has proposed in many venues the support for private and religious schools.  This is abhorrent to the Constitution’s separation Church and State.  The founding fathers were clear that religion is divisive and should never be co-mingled.  Trump is proposing 5 Billion dollars for this assistance.  Alright, what if I am a Muslim cleric I can now get federal tax payer monies if I start a madrasas? The madrasas are religious institutions devoted to teaching the Koran.  Anything less would be discrimination of religious beliefs. Is this a good idea for the use of taxpayer monies?  This is just pandering to the electorate?  Just like his insistence of having his multiple infrastructure weeks without proposing any projects.

His lies continue with the claim of adding manufacturing jobs.  His measure has included any business no matter how small that has a value added to a raw material such as a candy maker employing himself.  The figures he uses are a distortion of actual traditional manufacturing jobs.

A big misconception is that he is going to save medical insurance pre-existing conditions.  In a sense he may be correct. Trumps Justice Department has asked the Supreme Court not to consider a challenge in this session.  The Justice department had already submitted arguments, which would eliminate the remainder of the Affordable Care Act.  The Justice department due to the timing of the election asked the Supreme Court to wait until their next session to render a decision.  So in a sense he saved the insurance pre-existing condition non-discrimination by requirement by having the decision postponed?  Next Supreme Court session,  Trump will again ask the court to eliminate the entire ACA.

All the lies, distortions, and BS are absorbed by the ill-informed, and spewed out by the political talking heads as talking points without challenge.  This ability to lie with impunity is dangerous to the fragile constitutional republics experiment.  These lies are gaslighted by the media that does not fact check in real time but will repeat the lie unknowingly.  Once the lie hits the media, it’s amplified in the social media and on Trump’s state media, FOX.  This is where opinion is intertwined with a sprinkle of actual news and a liberal spread of Republican talking points.

It may be difficult shaming the Bully as he uses the Bully pulpit to expose any little flaw and uses shame and intimidation to his advantage.  Trump is a master of psychological projection.  He will attempt to paint you with his stench before he can be accused of the very thing he has done either in the past or currently doing.  When you point out the inconsistency, his apologists just say, “what about it?”.  Being an economist I understand some of his lack of empathy, however that emotion, I was taught, was only to be an advantage when allocating scarce resources over competing ends.  Trump’s mantra has been: when making any allocation of scarce resources, how can I take advantage for himself or his families benefit?

His decision to drop the nuclear treaty with Iran was a decision that makes no sense.  Iran was compliant with the agreement.  Trumps excuse was verification of sites that are not listed in the agreement would not be able to be accessed for 30 days and he said they could hide anything in 30 days.  I call this bullshit.  In no world can working with radioactive materials be cleaned up in 30 days due to obvious, elevated background levels.  Trump also was upset that Obama did not include reversing the role of the Iranian exported militias. 

The nuclear agreement was multinational and only considered nuclear proliferation.  The monies Iran had given to the U.S. as down payment for military hardware that the United States did not provide.  These monies were given back to Iran as incentive for the agreement.  In a judgement by the world court against the United States was obligated to repay the amount and also 7.5% interest on the monies owed.  So Obama got a nuclear agreement for paying what we owed with interest.  What does Trump have to show for his dumping the agreement and increasing sanctions on Iran?  He is totally ignorant of the Iranian peoples and the Middle East.  Obama negotiated something for what we owed or something for nothing. What has Trump produced? Iran emboldened to pursue their nuclear ambitions?

Trump, in order to get his way started imposing sanctions on Iran.  These sanctions don’t work when alternate venues for their oil persists exports.  Iran has always traded with Russia and its former states.  In the 70’s, the Iranian ground forces were supplied by USSR and the United States provided the Iranian Air force and Navy hardware.  Trump froze out Iran from normal international banking transactions. Iran continues to trade with China, Korea, japan, former USSR states, and by creating an alternative payment methods, Europe has been able to trade and avoid U.S. sanctions. 

Being a President that thinks he has unlimited powers should be aware of his actions when investigating his rival’s son.  I can honestly say this – what about Jarred and Ivanka?  Jarred was given a 100 million dollar loan on a failing property about to go bankrupt.  Every real estate mogul in Manhattan knows the dollars per square foot he paid cannot and will not support any reasonable rents in the near future.  Was he bailed out because of his fathers-in-law influence?  Now lets take Ivanka having been granted 100 copyrights on her products with China.  Trump is in trade negotiations with China.  Who is to say he won’t use tariffs to try to fabricate a story on Hunter Biden.  He has already openly asked in public.

Trump is a misguided isolationist.  He thinks not in global terms but in terms of what his constituents have felt due to globalization.  He continues to lie about how manufacturing will be rushing back from overseas.  If his constituents want to make wages that are prevalent in the third world and in sweatshops offshore it’s a race to the bottom.  His misguided economic policy of Tariffs have created a situation that has bailed out farmers with more money than Obama’s bailout of the Auto industry.  The crops lost due to Chinese tariffs are gone after a year.  China has found an alternative reliable source in Brazil.  Will our farmers ever regain its market share due to tariffs? 

The Stable Genius makes everyone think a trade deficit is catastrophic.  It’s not like the National Debt as he and other ill-informed are projecting.  You have heard of a National debt, yes, have you ever heard of a trade debt?  No, well here is why – a trade deficit is created by one country’s purchases being less than another countries.  There is no trade debt because the country we have a debt with has our monies and as money is fungible, the debt country may use their booty to invest back in the United States.  This is accomplished by purchasing and holding U.S. debt and other investments and the purchase of our services, since we are a service economy. Being this is U.S. currency, it does not disappear as in the National Debt and trade deficit is reconciled monthly. Think of trade deficit as a point in time snapshot.  Even with tariffs, the trade deficit continues to grow.  I question the usefulness of the tariffs.

Trade deficits are not cumulative as is the National Debt.  By harping on the trade deficit he can get the gullible to support tariffs, that then can be used as a cudgel to obtain personal as well as family favors.  Who pays the tariffs, the consumer?  A merchant buys TVs from China. Upon arrival, a tariff is placed on the product and the merchant then sends it off to a dealer along with the tariff.  The eventual buyer pays the bill.  Tariff action always has the aggrieved country seeking retribution.  With tariffs no one wins in a global economy.  20^th century manufacturing is never going to return so long as individuals are willing to work for $.15/hour, as in Bangladesh.  Bringing back some industries is insane.  This idea is a race to the bottom. 

Because China is smarter than the Trump administration, China took the advantage of Trump, by putting tariffs on a commodities that have alternate sources like soybeans (Brazil) and whiskey (anyone) by imposing import tariffs on our sale to China.   China has disrupted the U.S. farmer and the Soy bean market can be totally lost. So what do we do – bail out the farmer? The United States put tariffs on items that were only built in China with few alternative sources.  So in effect we are paying twice. Once when we consume the Chinese product and again by paying the farmer.  The farm bailout was larger than the Obama bailout of the auto industry.  It was found that ironically, millions of dollars of bailout monies went to Brazilian farm cooperatives operating in the Unites States.

New industries such as wind and solar power have been the largest growth industries for the last few years. Automation and machinery decimated farming, the mining industry, and soon to take over trucking.  The necessity for machines supporting the automation is the future.  Wind turbines, solar panels, and robotics are the future of manufacturing in the U.S.  These industries, as well as a rapid rail system will make America great.  Infrastructure has always been and will always be the best mode of transportation for commerce.

Then came the Coronavirus and the recession will turn ugly fast.  The first 2 months the administration gave the excuse that it was a hoax perpetrated by the Democrats to wreak havoc on the markets.  Although Trump has no responsibility for the virus, he does own the response.  Testing that can determine the extent of the virus.  This would picture where the hot spots are to concentrate the response.  The Trump administration, at the start of the pandemic, was offered test kits from the World Health Organization, the same as those used in Korea and he turned them down. Adequate testing remains a hindrance to an active response.