IT’S ONLY JUST BEGUN

The illusive coronavirus will come back in the fall.  This is assured by the 40% transmission rate, with persons that have the virus and no symptoms.  Couple these facts with the opening of beaches and POTUS insistence that schools (the epitome of a petri dish) reopen now.  With 24 states still increasing in cases, these states have opened beaches, bars, and parks nonetheless this with religious services and schools to follow. 

The CDC upped their estimate of deaths to be as large as 240,000.  This number has been revised upward weekly.  I can remember when Trump said it would never get over 100,000, last month.  My estimate of the total deaths has steadily increased as well.  The 250-300,000 range is totally feasible when you consider the Spanish Flu pandemic had a 2x deaths in the fall, after a reduction of cases in the summer. 

We are now only in the first round of the virus, with round two an added 200,000 to make the total 300,000 deaths?  This could come prior to the availability of a vaccine, currently wished by magic to be available after the election.  I said “wished” and “by magic” in light of the development time and testing.  Trump may be correct if he has he already authorized production prior to test results being available, this so he can keep his promise?  Would you like to be the first guinea pig?  This death total is possible without some type of prophylactic or vaccine and a second wave of the virus, which should begin in about 3-4 weeks from now.

CONVENTION FIREWORKS

POTUS threatened to pull the Republican convention from North Carolina, if the Democratic governor Roy Cooper does not promise he will allow a fully open convention in August.  What will he do?  If I were the governor, I would wait until it was safe, and medical professionals deemed it safe to respond, which could be determined by the CDC guidelines. 

It’s just a veiled threat.  The problem POTUS has is timing. It is too late to book another city with 1000’s of reservations at another venue. Political conventions are planned years in advance.  I question how it can be accomplished in 2 ½ months? Trump is only posturing to get his desire for a completely open convention.  If there is a convention, what will it look like?  Social distancing? Masks? Instead of balloons, hand sanitizer and bleach pods and hydroxychloroquine tablets and replacing all the lights with UV lights? Speaking of lights, this is another “look over here” at the laser beam Donald shining over there moments.  Trump is thinking Doral… anyone?

UP THE RIVER

The medical journal Lancet published a study of the drug hydroxychloroquine with 96,000 participants. Of the 96,000 virus patients, 15,000 were treated with only the drug. It found elevated death rates in coronavirus cases and an increase in individuals getting irregular heart beat (arrhythmia), which can lead to sudden heart failure and death. There was a 34% increase in risk of deaths with the drug alone and a 45% when combined with a cocktail with antibiotics.  The efficacy of the hydroxychloroquine, for use as a prophylactic, is still being studied.  The Lancet study was so convincing the WHO has discontinued their study of the drug on virus patients for safety reasons.  Is The Donald still floating down De Nile and on the pill?  I need to know where his doctor obtained his degree, so I can see what doctors to avoid, as they obviously don’t teach “do no harm”.