CAN BIDEN WIN IN NOVEMBER?

MIDWEST

The democrats key to the winning the Midwest would be to highlight the chaotic farm and tariff policies helping to create a 40% increase in farm failures and foreclosures.  Last year the Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Purdue, when confronted with payouts only being rolled out to the large farmers and with the small farmer foreclosure rate that high said, “go big or go home”.  His comment was as a result of the nature of the soy crop.   Soy producers are all big Agricultural co-ops.  His comments and callousness shows the distain for the base of Trump’s tribe.

The utter lack of understanding of world commodity markets is remarkable.  Trump applies tariffs to electronics, a commodity without many cheaper alternative sources and Xi counters with tariffs on soybeans and whiskey, making the relative price of our soybeans higher than our competition. When Xi applied the tariffs to U.S soy and whiskey, the world market with alternate sources, responded. Brazil being the alternate source for soy and anyone can produce whiskey, after all I made sadiqi (what westerners called moonshine or the word for friend in Arabic) in Saudi Arabia. Brazil has increased their soybean market share, due to the uncertainty of the supply and the potential for tariffs.  Midwestern farmers know the stupidity of tariffs in a world economy.

The keystone pipeline is another thorn in the side of the Midwest electorate.  This pipeline threatens wildlife, waterways, and promotes some of the most damaging environmental actions.  The pipeline transports tar sands from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico to Texas refineries.  The by-product is a gooey, messy, sandy tar that has no use.  The potential for an eventual environmental catastrophe is 100%. With the current oil prices and the outlook for the industry, the pipeline use will not be profitable for decades in the future. This is a good thing.

 I am convinced this forced placement of the pipeline can be attributed to the Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United case.  This decision nullified the states laws against corporate participation in elections. Twenty-four Mid-Western states had statutes against corporations involvement for over 100 years, until the poorly adjudicated decision by the Supreme Court was handed down, which nullified the state’s laws. This allowed the purchase of judicial, legislative and gubernatorial representation to support the pipelines construction. Yes politicians can be bought. Just ask the oil, gas, coal, big Pharma, and insurance industry lobbyists.

Michigan should be a cakewalk.  Just harp on the distain Trump has shown the state that requires everyone to wear a mask.  Going to a Ford plant that is manufacturing ventilators, which are life-saving equipment, having to be manufactured due to someone infecting someone else most likely not wearing a mask.  It’s like Biden says, “it’s a leadership thing”.  Macho man keeps thinking the virus will magically go away. After all, he can’t see it?  His tiffs with governor Gretchen Whitmer is like every other time when he is confronted with a strong, intelligent, and popular governor.  Trump is sparing with her to have her open her economy up and is stirring up his base of MAGA dotards in training. The Secretary of state for Michigan said last week Trump was no longer welcome there.  In Wisconsin MAGA dotards, each with a small penis carrying firearms, attempted to intimidate the democratic governor Tom Evers and lawmakers to prematurely open the economy.  This is only a small but vocal minority, showing their ignorance.  This, when the state has not yet met the CDC’s own guidelines.  Will the intimidation of the MAGA dotards turn off the older voters in Michigan and Wisconsin? The fact that nursing homes and older individuals make up 40% of the deaths, making the insistence on premature opening a poor move, if your election counts on older voters.  Maybe he knows they will vote for Biden, and he wants the pandemic take out as many as possible prior to the election?  I too can promote conspiracy theories as well as anyone.

Trump has also alienated Mike DeWine (R) popular governor of Ohio. Trump again applied pressure to reopen, when Ohio had not met the guidelines established by his own CDC. Also, Mike was heard chiding the president for his lack of wearing a mask.  The president has shown his laser light on the mask issue to make it a political statement during a pandemic.  How callous and thoughtless and un-Christian can a low-life get.  DeWine said, “wearing a mask is about loving a fellow human being”, and also said, “it is not about politics it’s about public health.”  What happened to love thy neighbor?  Trump has the virus millstone around his neck and is less popular than the majority of the governors. 

Everyone can see Trump’s vain attempts to stay relevant and newsey, by stirring up these little tiffs with governors, in social media, and with the honest news media.   Donald would call it the fake news, as they print what he says and they also speak facts, which may be contrary to his reality bubble.  His response to any conflict is put a derogatory label on it like a child would do.  All in the name of deflection and distraction, with his daily show of defiance and self-congratulatory praise. 

Biden can win the Midwest if he tries.  Mid-Westerners are not stupid, and can see his policy of withdrawal from the world markets and becoming an isolationist in a global economy, does not work well.  Especially when the United States feeds a good part of the world. 

WEST COAST AND NORTH EAST

These two geographic areas should be a lock for Biden. What is the alternative for these voters? West Coast and East Coast liberals should carry the day.  These are educated enclaves that realize the snake oil nature of this clown show.  The only problem is compliancy with the electorate. They must be energized with some type of October thing, to overcome the ruthlessness of the Republican dirt machine.  Everyone should realize a stay at home vote is a vote for Trump.  He cannot win with a record turnout.

North Carolina, a middle state, may be headed for a showdown with Trump.  He has threatened the governor Roy Cooper (D) to pull the Republican convention from his state if he does not allow an open, packed, and crowded event.  A vailed threat, however if there is a closed restricted event that is only allowed to be small group, he just may move it to Doral. After all, he may need the renovation and fumigation for the bed bugs on our dime?  Again, a Democratic governor, more popular than Trump is doing the right thing and getting pressures from the MAGA dotards to open prematurely.  Mr. Cooper is letting the medical professionals and the CDC guidelines guide him.

 Trump’s guide is a political/economical survivalist showman’s script.  Political antics during a somber event such as a pandemic, does not play well anywhere.  This may be why he is sinking in the polls.

SOUTH EAST AND SOUTH

Southeast, from South Carolina to Georgia to Florida may be tricky for Biden.  This will depend on how well voter suppression tactics work for the turnout in Georgia.  The Republican governor Brian Kemp has been in lock step with Trump in prematurely opening of the economy.  The governor barely beat out the Democrat and the margin was only 55,000 votes.  Will a second wave of the virus in the fall be a bane on the election and stifle the turnout without mail-in ballots? 

Florida is another question mark.  The influx of Puerto Ricans into Florida, as a result of the hurricane Maria in September 2017 could swing the election.  The governor Ron DeSantis  (R) of Florida, also a sycophant to Trump, even cooked the books to make it look like it was ok to open and was within the guidelines set by the CDC.  Fudging the books did not happen once, but 3 other times after they were caught.  A large population of Florida is over 65, with large enclaves of senior citizen nursing homes. One nursing home, the largest in the U.S. has over 100,000 residents.  All the senior citizens are upset with the governor re-opening sooner than the CDC guidelines would allow.  Will the second wave of the virus also suppress the vote in Florida?  With Trump lying about and trashing mail-in voting, I’m surprised Ron has eliminated the ability or restrict the access to mail-in ballots.

The South is a toss-up with all the abilities the governors have to suppress the vote.  Elimination of voting places, fewer booths, long lines waiting to vote, purging voter rolls, and requiring certain and sometimes very specific IDs.  All these tactics have been and will be employed.  Biden does have an advantage in the black older female voter.  This isn’t Trump’s base, in the south and the elderly do turn out to vote.

The common thread is voter suppression, and with impending potential for a second wave of the virus, I could build a conspiracy theory based on the voter suppression using the pandemic as a tool.  Good luck Joe Biden you may very well need it.  With the Republican dirty tricks and October surprises, he needs to plan a similar distraction that will energize the voter in November.  Look for a strategic geographical choice for VP.  His pick should be made to win a specific geographical area in mind that can generate the greatest impact and energize voter turnout.