Countdown 18 Days Until Election       

TRUMPS ECONOMY VS REALITY

Trump appears to be ahead in polls when asked about the economy.  This is a curious result when you examine the policies as studied by Moody’s Investors Service, often referred to as Moody’s.  Moody’s Service provides financial research on  investments  issued by commercial and government entities.

Moody’s rated the Biden plan for the economy as providing greater growth and more sustained employment than that of Trump’s plan.  Biden’s plan relies on a corporate tax increase to pay for infrastructure investment creating greater growth potential.  There is a belief on wall street that Biden would be better for the economy and therefore better for wall street. 

The historical impact of a republican vs a democrat when it comes to stock price  increases over each term of the presidents shows that the democrats outperform the republican presidents.

Biden’s economic plan does increase taxes, rather than the borrow and spend policies of Trump.  Cutting taxes and running a trillion dollar deficit at the same time is lunacy, that’s Trumponomics.

Biden’s tax plan would continue the Trump middle class tax cut which would not impact anyone earning less than $400,000 with an increase in income tax.  Biden would, however, increase capital gains taxes and corporate taxes.  Trump claims Biden’s plan would increase the average household $2,000 in taxes which is patently false fear mongering.  Biden plans to keep the Trump middle class tax cut.

The corporate rates are proposed to increase if Biden is elected.  Under Trump the corporate rate went from 35% to 21%, however the actual average corporate rate paid is only 14-15% with some very large corporations paying -0%.  Biden is proposing the rate be 28%.   Those in the highest income groups will see an increase in income and capital gains taxes if you make over $1 million/year. 

The market seems undeterred with a Biden win with the tax hike.  The market always seeks consistency and abhors chaos.  The infrastructure and recovery stimulus spending Biden has outlined has offset the fears of increased taxes on the stock market futures closings. 

Steve Rattner an economist and analyst on NBC discussed the economic impact of presidents.  Moody’s analytics projected growth in various scenarios as a result of the election.  The results were as follows:

1. If Biden sweeps and wins both houses the projected growth is 4.2%
2. If Biden wins and there is a divided congress the projected growth is 3.5%
3. If Trump wins and congress is split the projected growth is 3.2%
4. If Trump wins all the projected growth rate is 3.1%

This analysis shows that Biden would be a better choice to help the economy based on

the economic policies of each.

When it comes to employment Biden’s plan far outshines Trump’s in the analysis provided.  Trump’s plan never gets lower than the previous low rates of unemployment in the next 4 years.  Job creation follows the same patterns as items 1-4 above with the Biden plan far more potential for job growth.  Item 1 scenario above produces 7.4 million more jobs in the next 4 years than would be under the item 4 scenario above.

As far as the stock market performance is concerned the democratic presidents have had higher increases during their term than the republicans.   Democrats earning a 9.9% increase in stock market price during their term and republicans only 6.5% over the last 12 presidents, over 60 years going back to Eisenhower.  Trump has the best record of any republican during that time, however it is less than the Obama and Clinton performance of over 12%.  Bush 43 had a negative 4.5% in the interim between the two democrats.

Trump’s tweets that a Biden presidency would destroy the stock market does not comport to the facts thus far.   Trump may be referring to his poison pill of deferred debt incurred by the Federal Reserve with their $3 trillion loan and corporate grants and having the reserve act as a national risk taking bank.  This effort is confirming corporate socialism spending that is 4 times greater than the payments to individuals which is what republicans call socialism going too far fewer individuals at the top.

Republican corporatists have this mistaken idea that if you give money to the poor they will squander the funds on drugs, frivolous expenditures, and not seeing the benefit of work due to the handout giving them no incentive.  Whereas giving the money to the rich they will lift up those by spending their fortunes.  Corporate welfare given goes to the CEO’s and they use the monies for drugs,  stock buybacks, large yachts, 2^nd houses in Switzerland, and some actually did maintain employees.  I cannot understand corporate welfare over any other type.  Socialism is not providing for the lesser of these individuals.  There is a rationale for both welfare and socialism in this country. 

The Federal Government is allowing the destruction of the environment having corporations’ aspirations to rape the resources at the expense of the climate and clean air and water and public health.  These actions have had health implications all provided to you by corporations.  If this country continues on the preference for corporations to destroy the environment at the expense of public health, then it should also be responsible for the public health of its citizens.   The individual welfare as a public health initiative is imperative due to the corporate involvement in ruining the environment and thus causing the degraded health of everyone. 

Another prime example of why a public option is necessary is the government involvement in health care in response to Covid-19 and the miserable record by the Trump administrations.  His  handling of the pandemic has also generated more cases and deaths than in any other country.  His inadequate response to the virus has crashed the economy, caused untold deaths, and most could have been avoided if he only told what he knew.  Shouldn’t he be held responsible for the costs of health care for the pandemic?

Not to start a conspiracy theory, however, was it one of Trump’s reality shows playing to the audience and set up his infection with the Covid-19.  Here’s why this comes to mind, and shows how conspiracy theories start.  When the 24 doctors that treated him came out to give a public statement you can notice all the other doctors were silent and only Thump’s personal physician was allowed to speak.  All the doctors had to sign NDA’s (non-disclosure agreements) for the purpose of secrecy.  His physician came out with glowing comments about his health and his reactions and nothing that said he was in any stress.  The Dr. comments sounded like Trump had a hand in writing the script.  Immediately after the Dr. assessment Mark Meadows came out with a more dire assessment.  Which was it?  Did he actually have a false positive test and did not actually have the virus, and was given a placebo and a steroid shot for his marked new found vigor-performance enhancing drugs.  Would this explain his cavalier attitude about the virus around his staff and the public.