Countdown 56 Day Election

 California 26 days until early voting

ELECTING TRUMP    

The forecasting group Five Thirty Eight gave Trump a 29% probability of winning in the 2016 election against Hillary, the same value Trump has in their forecasting in the run up to the 2020 election by the same group.  Scary huh?  This time he has both the power of the bully pulpit to spew his lies and conspiracy theories he has the power of incumbency.   There are three things the Group noted that could put Trump over the top in this election they are:

1. The first element in  Trump’s bag of tricks is to discredit Biden.  Painting him as weak mentally feeble and unable to fulfill the office.  First it was “sleepy Joe” and when that didn’t stick it became “puppet Joe” aligning himself with crazy Bernie, AOC, and left-wing extremists. When that didn’t work Trump charged Biden with using performance enhancing drugs without evidence.  Trump claimed that the use of drugs was the only explanation for his ability to give a lucid speech.  Common theme is Biden weak and trump strong. Trump Campaign adds read “Strong leadership when America needs it most.
2. Trump’s second theme is “Law and Order” “you won’t be safe in Biden’s America,” which ignores the past 3 years.  Trump’s primary focus is on “Law and Order” and crime prevention.  I cannot understand someone that flaunts the law, and is known to break the law, and was impeached as a result of his attempted extortion can claim the mantle of “law and Order.”  The 10 instances of obstruction of justice in the Muller Probe, the Michael Cohen (Trump’s personal attorney) indictment which names Trump as individual one in a scheme which Michael Cohen as found guilty and went to prison.  How about the charity he and his family bilked the contributors and was forced to disband and forbade the family any participation in any charity in the future.  Oh and Trump University bilking students and being ordered to make restitution.  We know about the ways he abuses the law aspect, look at the order piece.  How do you claim order when you support dividing the public with the us vs them mantra with the “Deep State” and Fake News.”  Trump supports white supremacists and Q-Anon hate groups and conspiracy theories, and he calls supporters of peaceful protests for BLM criminals, looters, and rioters.
3. The third element of the campaign that could put trump over the top is the most important for Trump.  By reshaping the reality of the pandemic and the economy.  These two items make Trump most vulnerable. Republican pollster David Winston said if the election: “The two central issues are defeating the virus and getting Americans working again-not only getting the economy going, but getting kids back to school.  Voters want to hear solutions to those problems.”  With the economy it will be easy for Trump to taut the recovery from the depth of the unemployment, however we have only come back with 9 million of the 21 million jobs lost in March and April a hard sell. 

The economy is not the stock market for 90% of the public, however for that 10% he has a lock, they have suffered very little during this pandemic. The handling of the pandemic could sink his chances without a miracle on this front such as a hurried approval for a vaccine yet to be actually proven to be effective, but may not kill you. Trump will lie, distort, spread conspiracy theories and gaslight on every occasion and on any subject to win the election.

Vaccines are already being pushed out by Trump for strictly political reasons saying they will be out possibly before the election.  Dr. Fauci this week said the vaccine would not be readily available prior to the end of the year.  At that time there may be limited distribution with emergency authorization.  The long term effects of the vaccine will not be known for 10-12 months to get confidence the drug does not turn out like thalidomide in the early 60’s. The drug was touted as a safe non-barbiturate sedative by the pharmaceutical manufacturer and was used in Germany since 1957.  The drug caused deformities to unborn children and since then the FDA has required rigorous drug testing protocols have been in place for all new drugs coming to the market.  Trump will politicize the vaccine whenever he thinks it will help his campaign to get elected.